Monday, June 27, 2022
HomeNewsLiverpool vs Everton EPL prediction: Go for the favorite

Liverpool vs Everton EPL prediction: Go for the favorite


Manchester City and Liverpool held serve in their respective midweek fixtures, meaning the league leaders continue to hold a one-point advantage over the latter with six games to go.

I understand Liverpool have been playing a ton of football lately as this will be their seventh game in 22 days.

However, no one in the world is in better shape than manager Jurgen Klopp’s squad. Liverpool have won 13 of their last 14 Premier League matches, with an expected goal differential of +17.5 (xGDiff) in those competitions.

The Reds have also won 11 consecutive games at Anfield in EPL action, plus they have a stunning +25.9 xGDiff in those tilts. Sunday’s opponents Everton have been playing better lately, racking up a +0.3 xGDiff in their last six games, but it’s not a great game.

Liverpool manager Juergen Klopp

The Toffees really struggle when they have to play against teams that can press successfully, as they are 18th in offensive PPDA (passes allowed per defensive action) this season. As for the Reds, they have forced 375 high turnovers in total, 68 more than anyone else in the English top flight, per Opta.

Everton have also conceded the second highest scoring chances in the EPL, while Liverpool generate high scoring chances for fun, averaging 2.40 per game. Moreover, it looks like Everton will be without Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Andros Townsend, while Liverpool are fully healthy and able to rotate their squad.

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I have the projected spread at Liverpool -2.53 going into this game so I like the value we are getting on the favorite giving -2 on the alternative line at +100 odds and will make that my first choice.

Cunningham’s Call: Liverpool -2 (+100).

Wolverhampton to Burnley

Burnley welcome Wolverhampton to Turf Moor on Sunday in desperate need of a win to bolster their chances of avoiding relegation from the Premier League.

Burnley's Connor Roberts
Burnley’s Connor Roberts

The Clarets are unbeaten in their two games since the departure of long-serving manager Sean Dyche, earning a draw at West Ham United and a midweek victory against Southampton last time out.

Meanwhile, Wolves come in as the freshest team after a two-week break, sitting in eighth place with a chance of securing European qualification for next season.

I don’t see any value in picking a winner in the game, but I see a good prize on the total. So my best bet for this matchup is to support the two-goal flyover total at -125 odds via the alternate total.

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If your sportsbook only offers totals of 1.5 or 2.5 goals, I prefer to play the price more so that there are at least three goals instead of asking a large number so that there is no only two goals.

Over their last six games, games involving the Clarets have averaged 3.05 expected goals (xG) per 90 minutes. Meanwhile, Wolves games have posted a combined xG average of 2.64 in their last eight games in the league.

The main reason for this is poor defense on both sides. Wolverhampton have conceded 1.83 xG per game to their opponents and had just two clean sheets in this eight-game run, which is still slightly better than Burnley’s 1.84 xG average dropped on the same period.

With both clubs needing a result for different reasons, I think we’ll see a game that should have at least several goals to push. However, I expect more to give us a winning ticket here on this very low total.

Pund’s Choice: Total on 2 goals (-125).

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