Monday, October 3, 2022
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The Gulf awakens

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A spin of moisture off the Louisiana coast has now caught the attention of the National Hurricane Center and this morning they forecasted a 10% chance of development in the next 48 hours (and the next five days, but it will be onshore by then). Expected to move southwest across the Gulf, the system is most likely to impact the Brownsville to Corpus area although a few showers tomorrow and Sunday could get thrown our way!

But why only a 10% chance? The water is well above the 80° threshold needed for tropical development:

And no strong winds in the upper atmosphere are present to tear the system apart (note the blue color indicates LOW wind shear):

So the checklist looks pretty good for something to come of this:

So why only a 10% chance from the National Hurricane Center? I can’t speak for them, but I will say that neither the American Model nor the European model develops a closed circulation with the system. The key to an upgrade for a tropical cyclone is organization–winds from every direction indicating such a closed system. Here are both models right now and all you see is a disorganized system of rain:

In fact, the National Hurricane Center forecasts winds below 30mph with wave heights in the 3-5′ range around Corpus on Sunday, so not much of a strong cyclone expected. But as for rain, this could be a soaker for south Texas with as much as 6-8″ of rain in spots and just like us, they need it:

Our rain chances will depend on just where this system ends up being located and how strong it becomes –the farther away from us will give us lower rain chances. Whether this really develops into a full tropical depression or storm is to be seen (the next name is DANIELLE), but the bottom line is the tropical season is ramping up now and this is the first evidence of it. Don’t let your guard down!

Frank

Frank

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Sourabh Verma franklin
Sourabh Verma,From Franklin Tn - Sub-editor in Asian News International(ANI) I am a detailed-driven journalist with 3+ years of experience in news writing and copy-editing, I can file quick, compelling and error-free stories as they break. I have sound knowledge of national and international issues and have covered stories across beats, including politics, parliament, legal and crime like drugs and Human Trafficking at Asian News International (ANI), where I currently work. Some of these include extensive coverage of the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, several state Assembly elections, Parliament sessions, COVID-19 pandemic and other stories of national importance. A typical working day involves copy-editing dozens of drafts, managing junior sub-editors in shifts and keeping an eye on developing stories. This added responsibility followed a couple of years of filing stories based on press briefings, bytes and inputs from reporters on the ground.
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